Monday, December 19, 2022

The Numbers Don't Add Up

I keep getting calls asking if it is true that the “numbers” for the Nov. 8, 2022 election being reported by the Harris County Elections Administrator (EA) don’t add up. It is very hard to explain over the phone, so I am posting some of the numbers to show that yes, it is true, some of the numbers in this election simply don’t add up.

I have used the numbers posted online by the Harris County EA to explain some of the problems with the numbers he has reported. I am giving you the link to each document posted by the Harris County EA so you can check the numbers out for yourself. I have bolded in blue the numbers from the EA’s own reports. I have bolded in red my mathematical calculations so you can see what I found. I urge you to go to the original documents and check the math for yourself. 

Registered Voters 

Let’s start with a very simple number….the number of registered voters in Harris County for this election. That should be easy. Right? 

Let’s compare that number as reported by the Harris County EA on various “official” documents:

11/10/2022 Preliminary Reconciliation Report (upper left)                        2,547,825
11/18/2022 Election Reconciliation Official Totals (upper left)                  2,549,262 
11/19/2022 Official Results - Cumulative Results Report (upper right)    2,543,162 

The difference in the number of registered voters for this election as reported by the Harris County EA from 11/18/2022 to 11/19/2022 was - 6,100. 

Who were those 6,100 registered voters and how did they disappear in that 24-hour period?

Mailed Ballots 

Now let’s look at the ballot by mail numbers reported in the “Election Reconciliation - Official Totals.” Look at Box #6 in the bottom left-hand corner: Line “R’ gives the number of ballots sent to voters by mail. Line “S” gives the number of voters who chose not to return their mailed ballot to be counted. Line “T” gives the number of voters who surrendered their mailed ballot in order to vote in person. If you subtract the ballots not returned and the ballots surrendered, you should have the number of mailed ballots returned for this election. 

See my equation below: 

Box #6 (R) Mailed ballots sent to voters                        80,995 
Box #6 (S) Mailed ballots NOT retuned by voter       - 19,486 
Box #6 (T) Mailed ballots surrendered                       -   6,557 
Box #6  Mailed ballots retuned this election                  54,952 

It’s just basic math. No big deal…. until you look at Box #1 in the upper left-hand corner of the same “official” report. Line “C” in this box gives the total number of “mail ballots voters.” That number should match the number of voters who returned a ballot by mail for this election. But the numbers don’t match…they aren’t even close. 

Box #1 (C) Mail ballot voters                                            64,259 
Box #6 Mailed ballots retuned this election                  - 54,952 
More mail ballots to count than reported mailed        +  9,307 

In other words…..the Harris County EA reported that there were 9,307 MORE MAILED BALLOTS TO COUNT in this election than they reported MAILED AND RETURNED BY VOTERS

That is a serious discrepancy! 

Provisional Ballots 

Now take a look at the Provisional ballot numbers reported on the “Election Reconciliation Official Totals” report posted on 11/18/2022. 

Box #1 (D) Provisional ballots submitted                         6,302 
Box #2 (G) Provisional ballots rejected                          - 1,764 
Box #7 (U) Provisional Ballots deemed incomplete       -       0 
Provisional ballots to be counted                                      4,538 

Box #3 (L) Provisional ballots counted                          - 4,333 
Fewer Provisional ballots counted than available              205 

If you subtract the Provisional ballots which were “rejected” and those which were “incomplete,” you should have the number of Provisional ballots “counted.” But you don’t. Instead, you have the Harris County EA reporting that he counted 205 FEWER. So…if those Provisional ballots were not rejected, incomplete, or counted, where did those 205 ballots go? 

But even more interesting in Harris County’s reporting of Provisional ballots in this election, is a comparison of the number of Provisional ballots reported on the first Reconciliation Report posted on 11/10/2022 to the final Election Reconciliation report posted in 11/18/2022. 

Box #6 (O) 11/10/2022 Report - Estimated provisional ballots                   3,828 
Box #1 (D) 11/18/2022 Report - Provisional ballots submitted                   6,302 
Difference in number of Provisional ballots following election night     + 2,474 

So…after finishing counting the Election Night results, and compiling the Reconciliation Report on 11/10/2022, the Harris County EA reported having approximately 3,828 Provisional ballots to be processed. By the time the final official results were posted eight days later, the Harris County EA had found approximately 2,474 additional Provisional ballots to add to his count. That’s very interesting. Where were those additional 2,474 Provisional ballots found? 

Cumulative Results Report – Official Results 

But perhaps the most notable numbers which don’t add up in this election can be found by digging into the vote count “Official Results” which the Harris County Elections Administrator posted on 11/19/2022. 

To fully understand this report, you must first understand what is in it. First, in the upper right-hand corner is the number 1,107,390. That is the number of “cast vote records” counted, or you could say the number of voters who cast a ballot. 

Then the voters’ choices are given for each race. The number of votes cast for each candidate in columns by the type of vote cast: Ballot by Mail, Early Voting In Person, Election Day In Person, Early Voting Provisional Ballot, and Election Day Provisional Ballot. The far right-hand column gives the total votes cast for each candidate. 

Below the votes cast for each candidate is the number of “undervotes” or voters who chose not to vote in that race, followed by the number of “overvotes” or the voters who voted for too many candidates in that race. Finally, the total number of “write-in” votes not included in the list of candidates. In order to get the total number of votes cast in a particular race, you must add the votes cast for candidates to the undervotes, overvotes, and write ins. 

As an example, let’s look at the race for Governor of Texas on Page 5 of the Cumulative Results Report.

On the far right-hand column, the number of cast votes for Governor candidates, plus the number of overvotes and undervotes, equals 1,107,390. That is the same number of cast vote records counted in this election reported in the upper right-hand corner of the “Official Results.” That’s all good. That’s what you expect to find in this report. 

Additionally, if you go back to the 11/18/2022 “Election Reconciliation – Official Totals” report, you will find that the number of “Counted Ballots” in Box #3, match up perfectly with each type of ballot cast. 

You can’t total every race and expect the total cast ballots to be the same because many races are Precinct or District races such as US Representative, State Senator, County Commissioner, School Boards, etc. 

But the races every voter in Harris County gets to vote in, from District Judge, 55th Judicial District on Page 20 down to County Treasurer on Page 42, should all total to the same number of cast votes – 1,107,390

If you start reviewing the total votes cast in the countywide races on page 20…everything looks good…that is…until you get to Page 26. That’s when the cast vote records for Ballot by Mail start to show discrepancies. 

You can see below that more cast votes are missing from each race as you go down the page. 

Some will say that is because voters get tired and leave more races blank as they go down the ballot. That is true, but remember, when the voter leaves a blank, the tabulation computer counts that blank as an “undervote.” The total number of votes cast should be the same for every countywide race. 

And it gets worse….by the time you get to Page 40, the discrepancies are in EVERY TYPE OF VOTE CAST, and the total is over 1,000 votes per race.'s not just that the numbers don't add up...we also have to ask the question...

Whose votes did NOT get counted???...Mine???... Maybe YOURS??? 

Colleen Vera